Over the past two weeks, Guatemalans have taken to the streets to defend the country’s democratic transition scheduled for January, when President-elect Bernardo Arevalo is supposed to take office. More than 100 blockades on highways across the country have shut down transport routes and border crossings, and blocked deliveries of food and fuel to key locations, including the capital’s main airport.
The protests have been mostly peaceful, marred only by a small number of acts of vandalism. Nevertheless, the courts have ordered security forces to disperse the protesters and reopen the country’s roads so the economy can function. While the government has tried to end the blockades, police have also been careful not to use excessive force, understanding that brutal repression would only draw greater numbers of protesters and more vocal international condemnation. As of the writing of this column, the protesters continue to block roads across the country.
The protesters persist because they are convinced that the ruling political and economic elites are attempting to undo the results of the country’s recent presidential election and remain in power unconstitutionally. In August, Arevalo defeated Sandra Torres in a second-round runoff, a surprise victory for Guatemalan democracy after an election in which the ruling elite tried to keep all candidates who might represent change off the ballot. In spite of these candidate bans, as well as legal threats and state resources aimed at influencing the elections, Guatemalan voters managed to consolidate around a candidate—Arevalo—who represents a clear break from the current government of President Alejandro Giammattei.
In the months since the election, Attorney General Consuelo Porras, who has been sanctioned by the U.S. due to corruption and abuse of power, has actively attempted to undermine the results. At the recommendation of prosecutors working for Porras, Arevalo’s Semilla Party had its legal status stripped, something that will hamper the incoming president’s ability to advance his agenda in Congress. Porras also ordered ballot boxes opened and searched over the objections of the electoral authority, a move that compromises the integrity of the vote and which may have allowed Porras to manipulate some results.
Among those most active in the protests in support of Arevalo are the country’s Indigenous communities. Making up approximately 40 percent of Guatemala’s population—estimates can vary widely depending on how the demographics are measured—the country’s Indigenous people experience higher rates of poverty and malnutrition, and they have historically been underrepresented politically. Rather than simply claiming the mantle of leadership for this movement, however, Arevalo has clearly stated multiple times that he expects the Giammattei government to speak directly to the Indigenous leaders who are actually organizing the protests and discuss their demands. It’s a strong sign that the incoming administration will give prominence to Indigenous voices, and it has helped keep the pressure on the current administration to allow for a democratic transition.
According to officials of the current administration, the protesters have no reason to be out there blockading highways, because Giammattei has already committed himself to ensuring the transition. He has offered to negotiate any obstacles with the help of mediators from the Organization of American States and says he does not have the authority to block Porras’ investigation or call for her resignation. On the surface, Giammattei’s arguments seem logical, but for the protesters in the streets as well as for outside observers of the country’s politics, it’s clear that his stance is not credible.
In spite of everything else going on in the world, the hemisphere has not lost sight of the fact that Guatemala is a potential positive story for regional democracy, but one that needs assistance.
There is an ugly irony in how Giammattei is hiding behind the façade of democracy and judicial independence during this process. In 2022, Giammattei renominated Porras for another four-year term as attorney general in spite of widespread condemnations of her abuses of power. And while his argument that he cannot interfere with her investigations in order to guarantee the independence of the attorney general’s office is solid argument in principle, in this instance, it is widely understood that Porras is doing the bidding of Guatemala’s powerbrokers—including Giammattei—in her attempts to undermine the election. Moreover, Giammattei’s silence amid her current abuses of power is not only an affront to the country’s democracy, but also self-serving, given his opposition to Arevalo’s plans to investigate corruption.
As I wrote in the weeks after the August election, international pressure will be needed to guarantee a successful transition in Guatemala. The good news is that in spite of everything else going on in the world, including the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, the hemisphere has not lost sight of the fact that Guatemala is a potential positive story for regional democracy, but one that needs assistance. Civil society organizations in the U.S. and around the region have lauded Arevalo and paid close attention to the current government’s abuses. And the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden has made numerous statements in support of Arevalo across many weeks. Indeed, Washington has issued more press releases and statements of support and engaged in more high-level meetings to ensure the integrity of this election than perhaps for any other in the hemisphere’s history.
The OAS has also offered its full support for the transition and has avoided being sidelined by the Giammattei government, which has tried to limit the organization’s mediator role in the discussions over the transition. The OAS has been critical of Porras’ attacks on Arevalo, with Secretary-General Luis Almagro last week calling her efforts to undermine the democratic vote “shameful” and “unprecedented.” Almagro has also sided with Arevalo in offering the OAS as a mediator between Giammattei and the protesters, rather than being limited in that role to just the transition process.
The most likely scenario is that Arevalo will become president in January and manage to cobble together a governing coalition in spite of the legal attacks against his party. But if that happens on schedule, it will be in part due to the ongoing protests and roadblocks in Guatemala. Citizens are in the streets protecting democracy and making sure the world continues to pay attention to the fact that the country’s ruling elite want to halt the transition of power. As a result, this moment has the potential to be a success story for citizen activism on the ground and democracy advocates internationally. But it will take keeping up the pressure and attention for Guatemala to become the good news story the world needs right now.
James Bosworth is the founder of Hxagon, a firm that does political risk analysis and bespoke research in emerging and frontier markets. He has two decades of experience analyzing politics, economics and security in Latin America and the Caribbean.